欧洲经济展望(1)

 admin   2019-09-14 12:42   394 人阅读  0 条评论
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翻译编辑:清波门

ECB’s Draghi expected to unveil a huge new stimulus plan

欧洲央行行长德拉吉预计将公布一项新的大规模刺激计划

ATED AN HOUR AGO

Annette Weisbach

安涅特韦史巴赫

安涅特@ANNETTECNBC

Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for Europe show a stabilization, albeit the weakness persists in the industrial space.

The question is if and when the spillover will happen to the service sector and to the labor market — especially in the larger economies like Germany and France.

Even though critics are getting louder and louder questioning the effectiveness of further easing,

Draghi is getting more and more vocal about weaker-than-expected inflation.

欧洲采购经理人指数(pmi)显示企稳,不过工业领域的疲弱状况仍在持续。

问题是,这种溢出效应是否会、何时会波及服务业和劳动力市场——尤其是在德国和法国等较大经济体。

尽管批评人士越来越质疑进一步宽松政策的有效性,德拉吉对低于预期的通胀却越来越直言不讳。

The European Central Bank (ECB) and its outgoing President Mario Draghi are caught in a “Catch 22”: The market is expecting so much stimulus on Thursday that it seems almost impossible to surprise on the upside.

The economy is showing further signs of weakness, the inflation rate is not picking up and the U.S.-China trade war has no real end in sight. So what will the ECB do?

“We still think that Mr Draghi will muster a sufficient majority in the Governing Council to push through a package that will include rate cuts as well as a restart of the asset purchase program,” Dirk Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis, said in a note to clients.

欧洲央行(ECB)及其即将离任的行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)陷入了“两难境地”:市场预期周四将出台大量刺激措施,因此几乎不可能出现意外的上升。

美国经济正在显示出进一步疲软的迹象,通货膨胀率没有回升,美国经济也没有好转美中贸易战还没有真正的结束。那么欧洲央行会怎么做呢?

“我们仍然认为,德拉吉将在欧洲央行管理委员会(Governing Council)获得足够的多数票,推动包括降息以及重启资产购买计划在内的一揽子计划的通过,”欧洲央行Natixis观察人士德克•舒马赫(Dirk Schumacher)在给客户的一份报告中表示。

The meeting comes as some ECB hawks in recent weeks have been trying to downplay the chances of a huge stimulus package.

“There is, judging from (the) latest comments coming out of the Governing Council, no clear consensus within the Governing Council regarding the size and scope of potential easing measures.”

此次会议召开之际,欧洲央行的一些鹰派人士最近几周一直试图淡化出台大规模刺激计划的可能性。

“从理事会最近发表的评论来看,理事会内部对可能采取的宽松措施的规模和范围没有明确的共识。”

Recent economic data is not suggesting anything particularly positive, although the leading indicators have somewhat stabilized. Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for Europe show a stabilization, albeit the weakness persists in the industrial space. The question is if and when the spillover will happen to the service sector and to the labor market — especially in the larger economies like Germany and France.

So given this huge expectation the ECB is dealing with, is there room for an upside surprise?

最近的经济数据并没有显示出任何特别积极的迹象,尽管主要指标已有所企稳。欧洲采购经理人指数(pmi)显示企稳,不过工业领域的疲弱状况仍在持续。问题是,这种溢出效应是否会、何时会波及服务业和劳动力市场——尤其是在德国和法国等较大经济体。

因此,鉴于欧洲央行正在应对的这种巨大预期,是否存在意外上涨的空间?

“Potential surprises could include an expansion of the QE (quantitative easing)-eligible universe to new asset classes (senior bank debt or equities), or more radical changes to QE parameters (removing capital keys),” said Frederik Ducrozet, who watches the ECB at Pictet in Geneva.

"潜在的意外可能包括量化宽松(QE)范围扩大至新的资产类别(高级银行债券或股票),或对量化宽松参数进行更激进的改变(取消资本键),"在日内瓦Pictet观察欧洲央行的Frederik Ducrozet表示。

“The bar for such radical changes seems high, although we would rule out nothing in a more adverse scenario next year.”

In detail the ECB is expected to do the following:

Cut its deposit rate.

Re-launch monthly net asset purchases.

Strengthen its forward guidance by extending the horizon to keep rates at present or lower levels beyond the first half of 2020.

Introduce a tiering system for bank deposits.

Raise the self-imposed issuer limit for purchases of government bonds from 33% to 40%, or even 50%.

“这种激进改革的门槛似乎很高,尽管我们不排除明年出现更不利局面的可能性。”

预计欧洲央行将具体采取以下措施:

降低存款利率。

重新启动月度资产净购买。

加强前瞻性指引,将利率维持在当前水平或更低水平,直至2020年上半年以后。

引入银行存款分级制度。

将自行设定的政府债券发行上限从33%提高到40%,甚至50%。

If that is what we get, it will probably be the most comprehensive package ever by the ECB and a sign that the central bank has changed under the new Chief Economist Philip Lane.

Even though critics are getting louder and louder questioning the effectiveness of further easing, Draghi — in his last few weeks as president — is getting more and more vocal about weaker-than-expected inflation.

“As you know, inflation expectations now have been at historical lows for some time. So we have to consider that. With the admission — and that’s again very important — with the admission that we don’t like this,” he said during the last press conference in July.

It’s likely he’s not much happier now.

如果这是我们得到的结果,那将可能是欧洲央行有史以来最全面的一揽子计划,也标志着欧洲央行在新任首席经济学家菲利普•莱恩(Philip Lane)的领导下发生了变化。

尽管批评人士越来越强烈地质疑进一步宽松政策的有效性,德拉吉——在他担任欧洲央行行长的最后几周——对低于预期的通胀越来越直言不讳。

他说:“大家都知道,通货膨胀预期在历史低点已经有一段时间了。所以我们必须考虑这个。他在7月的最后一次新闻发布会上说:“我们承认,我们不喜欢这样。

很可能他现在并不开心。

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/france-says-it-will-block-development-of-facebooks-libra-in-europe.html

France says it ‘cannot authorize’ Facebook’s libra project on European soil

PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGOUPDATED AN HOUR AGO

Elizabeth Schulze

@ESCHULZE9

法国说,它“无法授权”Facebook在欧洲的天秤座项目

一小时前出版的

伊丽莎白•舒尔茨

@ESCHULZE9

France is taking aim at big U.S. tech firms again — this time in the direction of Facebook’s proposed cryptocurrency libra.

Speaking at an OECD conference in Paris Thursday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said libra would put the sovereignty of governments at risk.

“All these concerns around libra are serious. So I want to say this with a lot of clarity: In these conditions, we cannot authorize the development of libra on European soil,” Le Maire said, according to a translation by CNBC.

法国再次将矛头指向美国的大型科技公司,这次的目标是Facebook提出的加密货币libra。

法国财政部长勒梅尔星期四在巴黎举行的经合组织会议上说,libra会将政府的主权置于威胁中。

所有这些围绕着libra的担忧都很严重。所以我想非常明确地说:在这种情况下,我们不能授权libra在欧洲的土地上发展。

Le Maire has been an outspoken opponent of libra since Facebook unveiled the project in June. In addition to concerns the cryptocurrency could undermine the sovereignty of other nations’ currencies, he has highlighted issues with money laundering, terrorism financing and market dominance. Regulators around the world have echoed those fears.

In his remarks Thursday, Le Maire said he had spoken with ECB President Mario Draghi and Christine Lagarde, who will be the next chief of the central bank, about creating a “public digital currency.”

自从Facebook在6月公布这个项目以来,勒梅尔一直是libra的直言不讳的反对者。除了担心加密货币可能损害其他国家货币的主权外,他还强调了洗钱、恐怖主义融资和市场主导地位等问题。世界各地的监管机构也表达了同样的担忧。

勒梅尔在周四的讲话中说,他已经与欧洲央行行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)和下任行长拉加德(Christine Lagarde)就创建一种“公共数字货币”进行了讨论。

Unlike central bank-backed currencies, libra would be overseen by an independent nonprofit based in Switzerland called the Libra Association. Facebook, along with 27 other companies like PayPal, Visa and Mastercard, were founding members of the Libra Association. The goal of the project, Facebook says, is to enable fast, low-cost payments and money transfers for people around the world.

与央行支持的货币不同,libra将由总部位于瑞士的独立非盈利机构“libra协会”(libra Association)监管。Facebook以及贝宝(PayPal)、Visa和万事达(Mastercard)等其他27家公司都是vibra协会的创始成员。Facebook表示,该项目的目标是为世界各地的人们提供快速、低成本的支付和转账服务。

On Wednesday, the Libra Association said it will apply for a payments license in Switzerland, confirming the country will be home to its main supervisory authority.

France has taken a leading role regulating big technology companies in Europe, passing a 3% digital tax on a handful of U.S. firms like Facebook, Amazon and Google.

libra协会和Facebook没有立即回应CNBC的置评请求。

libra协会周三表示,将在瑞士申请支付牌照,证实瑞士将是其主要监管机构的所在地。

法国在监管欧洲大型科技公司方面发挥了主导作用,对Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)和谷歌等少数几家美国公司通过了3%的数字税。

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