中美即将达成贸易协议?

 admin   2019-09-14 12:50   1,107 人阅读  0 条评论
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翻译编辑:清波门

US-China trade deal coming soon? Big companies are not buying it
中美贸易协定即将达成?大公司并不买账

PUBLISHED FRI, SEP 13 2019  6:00 AM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO

Eric Rosenbaum@ERPROSE

2019年9月13日星期五上午6点(美国东部夏令时)一小时前

Eric Rosenbaum@ERPROSE

KEY POINTS

  • Some 65% of U.S. CFOs think U.S. trade policy will be negative for their businesses over the next six months, according to the latest quarterly CNBC Global CFO Council survey released Friday.
  • Zero respondents said trade policy would be positive for their business.
  • The CNBC Global CFO Council represents some of the largest public and private companies in the world, collectively managing more than $5 trillion in market value across a wide variety of sectors.
  • 要点
  • •CNBC全球首席财务官委员会(Global CFO Council)上周五发布的最新季度调查显示,约65%的美国首席财务官认为,未来六个月,美国的贸易政策将对他们的企业产生负面影响。
  • •零受访者表示,贸易政策将有利于他们的企业。
  • CNBC全球首席财务官委员会(CNBC Global CFO Council)代表着世界上一些最大的上市公司和私营公司,它们在各种各样的行业共同管理着逾5万亿美元的市值。
  • If you follow the markets, there’s been recent reason for optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal. Some investors are buying it — literally — with recent gains in stocks attributed to positive signals from the U.S. and China after a volatile August. But there’s one group of market insiders not buying the talk: corporate executives. In other words, the people who run the companies whose publicly traded shares have been rebounding.
  • •如果你关注市场,最近有理由对美国经济保持乐观中美贸易协定。在经历了8月份的动荡之后,美国和中国的积极信号推动了近期股市的上涨,一些投资者确实在买进。但有一群市场内部人士并不买账:企业高管。换句话说,那些管理上市公司的人的股价一直在反弹。
  • Top executives in the U.S. and around the world are not placing bets that the U.S.-China trade war will be resolved anytime soon. In fact, corporations say they expect to feel the pain of trade tensions over the next six months, according to the third-quarter CNBC Global CFO Council survey. The quarterly survey finds CFOs around the world increasingly are worried about U.S. trade policy as a business risk factor.
  • Chief financial officers also downgraded their view of the U.S. economy, from “improving” to “stable.”
  • If a trade deal remains elusive, even that stability may not last long. “With this level of uncertainty between the U.S. and China, I would think ‘stable’ might actually be a win a couple of quarters from now,” said Jack McCullough, president and founder of the CFO Leadership Council, an executive networking group. “I cannot recall when CFOs were as jittery about a change in policy as they are today.”
  • The CNBC Global CFO Council represents some of the largest public and private companies in the world, collectively managing more than $5 trillion in market value across a wide variety of sectors. The Q3 2019 survey was conducted between Aug. 21 and Sept. 3 among 62 global members of the council.
  • •美国和世界各地的高管都没有把赌注押在美国中美贸易战将很快得到解决。事实上,根据CNBC全球首席财务官委员会(CNBC Global CFO Council)第三季度的调查,企业表示,它们预计未来6个月将感受到贸易紧张带来的痛苦。该季度调查发现,全球首席财务官越来越担心美国贸易政策会成为商业风险因素。
  • •首席财务官也将他们对美国经济的看法从“好转”下调至“稳定”。
  • •如果贸易协议仍然难以达成,即使是这种稳定也可能不会持续太久。首席财务官领导委员会CFO Leadership Council的总裁兼创始人杰克•麦卡洛(Jack McCullough)表示:“鉴于美国和中国之间的这种不确定性,我认为‘稳定’实际上可能是未来几个季度的胜利。”“我想不起首席财务官们什么时候像现在这样对政策的变化如此紧张。”
  • •CNBC全球首席财务官委员会(CNBC Global CFO Council)代表着世界上一些最大的上市公司和私营公司,它们在各种各样的行业共同管理着逾5万亿美元的市值。2019年第三季度的调查是在8月21日至9月3日期间,在安理会62个全球成员国中进行的。

Trade is the biggest risk factor

  • 贸易是最大的风险因素

U.S. CFOs taking the survey did reveal significant concerns about the trade war in other responses. About sixty-five percent said trade policy will be a negative for their business over the next six months. In Q2 that had dropped to 40% — possibly due to a prevailing and false sense of security that a deal would be easier to achieve than has proven to be the case — but it is now back up to a level consistent with the Q3 2018 through Q1 2019 surveys.

“The surprise may be that only about 65% of CFOs view that trade policy will be a negative for their organizations,” McCullough said. “While at a macro level it’s easy to understand the motivation behind the recent policy changes, I can’t find a single CFO who has told me it would be a positive for his or her business. ... It is uniformly negative for their business, at least in the eyes of finance chiefs.”

接受调查的美国首席财务官们在其他回答中确实显示出对贸易战的严重担忧。约65%的受访者表示,未来六个月的贸易政策将对他们的业务产生负面影响。在第二季度降至40%——可能由于流行的和虚假的安全感,协议将比已经被证明了的现实更容易达成——但现在恢复到水平与2018年第三季度到2019年第一季度的调查一致。

麦卡洛说:“令人惊讶的是,只有大约65%的首席财务官认为贸易政策对他们的公司不利。”“尽管从宏观层面来看,我们很容易理解最近政策变化背后的动机,但我找不到一位CFO告诉我,这将对他或她的业务产生积极影响……这对他们的业务都是负面的,至少在财务主管们看来是这样。”

While at a macro level it’s easy to understand the motivation behind the recent policy changes, I can’t find a single CFO who has told me it would be a positive for his or her business.

尽管从宏观层面上看,我们很容易理解最近政策变化背后的动机,但我找不到一位首席财务官告诉我,这将对他或她的业务产生积极影响。

Jack McCullough

PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER, CFO LEADERSHIP COUNCIL

杰克·麦卡洛

总裁兼首席财务官领导委员会创始人

McCullough noted that his networking group offers an online forum for more than 1,100 chief financial officers to discuss issues of importance to their business. He said there never has been a question that he can recall about government policy that has dominated discussion as much as the trade policy has recently. That discussion has included whether manufacturing is moving and strategies for dealing with tariffs. “It is top of mind, and they are not confident they will emerge from this unscathed,” he said.

Nearly half of North American CFOs surveyed by CNBC said they are facing higher input costs, and more than one-quarter said they have increased prices to offset those costs. They were more likely than European or Asian counterparts to say they have experienced higher costs and passed on those costs to customers. And more likely to say they have moved operations to minimize the impact of tariffs, though that was less than 20% of CFO respondents. While U.S. CFOs indicated in the survey that they were not confident about increasing their capital spend, less than 10% said they had delayed or canceled projects because of trade policy.

麦卡洛指出,他的网络小组为1100多名首席财务官提供了一个在线论坛,讨论对他们业务重要的问题。他说,他所记得的有关政府政策的问题从来没有像最近的贸易政策那样主导着讨论。讨论内容包括制造业是否正在转移以及应对关税的策略。他说:“这是最重要的,他们不相信自己能毫发无损地走出困境。”

在接受CNBC调查的北美首席财务官中,近一半的人表示,他们面临着更高的投入成本,超过四分之一的人表示,他们提高了价格,以抵消这些成本。他们比欧洲或亚洲同行更有可能表示,他们经历了更高的成本,并将这些成本转嫁给客户。更有可能的回答是,他们已将业务转移,以将关税的影响降至最低,不过这一比例在CFO受访者中不到20%。尽管美国首席财务官在调查中表示,他们对增加资本支出没有信心,但只有不到10%的人表示,由于贸易政策,他们推迟或取消了一些项目。

The daily headlines can be tougher to measure. On Thursday alone, news broke that the U.S. and China were considering an interim trade deal, but a few minutes later a senior White House official told CNBC no such deal was in the works. President Donald Trump did agree to delay increasing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 as a “gesture of goodwill,” and that move was matched by China, which said it would restart purchase of some U.S. agricultural products. Then later in the day, President Trump told reporters he would be open to an interim trade deal with China but would prefer a lasting deal. “It’s something we would consider, I guess,” Trump said.

The U.S. and China have agreed to meet again at the negotiating table in October, a plan that was reported after an early September phone call between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

每天的头条新闻很难衡量。仅在周四,就有消息称美国和中国正在考虑达成一项临时贸易协议,但几分钟后,一名白宫高级官员对CNBC表示,目前还没有达成这样的协议。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)确实同意将对价值2500亿美元的中国商品加征关税的时间从10月1日推迟至10月15日,以示“善意的姿态”。中国也同意推迟加征关税,表示将重新开始购买一些美国农产品。当天晚些时候,特朗普总统告诉记者,他对与中国达成临时贸易协议持开放态度,但更希望达成一个持久的协议。“我想,这是我们会考虑的事情,”特朗普说。

美国和中国同意今年10月在谈判桌上再次会晤。9月初,中国国务院副总理刘鹤与美国贸易代表莱特希泽和财政部长姆努钦通了电话

CFOs view of the trade war is not yet influencing their thinking about President Trump’s reelection chances. The survey found the majority of CFOs of the belief that Trump will be reelected in 2020 and the U.S. economy will not slip into a recession next year.

首席财务官们对贸易战的看法,尚未影响他们对特朗普总统连任机会的看法。调查发现,大多数首席财务官认为,特朗普将在2020年连任,美国经济明年不会陷入衰退。

 CNBC GLOBAL CFO COUNCIL

  • CNBC全球首席财务官委员会

Trade weighing on business investment

  • 贸易影响商业投资

Meanwhile, the trade uncertainty may be weighing on business investment, which declined in recent months to a three-year low, and has been cited by business trade groups as a reason trade deals need to be completed.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said on last Friday, “I think it is the case that uncertainty around trade policy is causing some companies to hold back now on investment. ... So for businesses, to particularly make longer-term investments in plants or equipment or software, they want some certainty that the demand will be there.”

与此同时,贸易不确定性可能对企业投资构成压力。近几个月来,企业投资已降至3年来的最低水平,企业贸易团体已将其列为需要完成贸易协议的理由之一。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周五表示:“我认为,贸易政策的不确定性正导致一些公司现在暂停投资。因此,对于企业来说,尤其是对工厂、设备或软件进行长期投资,他们希望一定程度上确定需求会存在。”

U.S. CFO responses to the third-quarter CNBC survey show they are hesitant to approve capital spending and hiring plans. The U.S. was the only of the three global regions surveyed — Europe and Asia are the other two — in which CFOs said it was more likely that both spending and headcount remain at the same level, rather than increasing, in the next year. Asia-Pacific was the only region where as many CFOs said they would decrease as increase spending.

“If the CFOs are correct — and on matters of their own company they usually are — this is really unfortunate,” McCullough said. “We’ve witnessed several years of increased hiring and capital spending.”

美国财务长对CNBC第三季调查的回应显示,他们对批准资本支出和招聘计划犹豫不决。在接受调查的三个全球地区中,只有美国的首席财务官表示,明年支出和员工人数更有可能保持在同一水平,而不是增加。欧洲和亚洲是另外两个接受调查的地区。亚太地区是唯一一个首席财务官表示将减少支出、同时增加支出的地区。

麦卡洛表示:“如果首席财务官的判断是正确的——他们通常在自己公司的事情上也是正确的——这真的很不幸。”“我们见证了数年来招聘和资本支出的增长。”

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