鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)作茧自缚受困于英国退欧的牢笼里

 admin   2019-09-14 14:10   1,766 人阅读  0 条评论
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翻译编辑:清波门 /南外英语系群

Analysis by Luke McGee, CNN
Updated 0942 GMT (1742 HKT) September 14, 2019
CNN新闻,卢克·麦基分析
更新于2019年9月14日格林尼治时间0942(香港时间1742)

London (CNN)
Boris Johnson never imagined it would be this hard.

Before he secured the job he'd craved for his whole life, the man once seen as the Midas of British politics thought he would burst into Downing Street on a wave of sunny optimism, flip over the table and watch as all the cards landed just where he wanted them.

Instead, the table crashed down on his head.

伦敦(CNN)鲍里斯·约翰逊从未想过会有这么难。
在得到这份他渴望毕生的工作之前,这位曾经被视为英国政坛“迈达斯”(Midas)的人曾认为,他会带着一股阳光般的乐观情绪闯入唐宁街
(Downing Street),翻过桌子,看着所有的牌都落在他想要的地方。

相反,桌子砸在了他的头上。

Barely seven weeks into the job, Johnson has already alienated many of the people he needsonside if he is to achieve his principal goal of getting Brexit done by October 31. He has picked fights with his own party, set negotiating red lines that are unpalatable to the European Union, made promises to hardline Brexiteers that left him with little wriggle room, and threatened to leave the EU without a deal despite the strong objections of Parliament.

His scattergun approach left everyone baffled as to what he actually wants.

上任仅7周,约翰逊就已经疏远了许多他需要的人,如果他想在10月31日前完成自己的主要目标——英国脱欧的话。他与自己所在的政党发生了冲突,设定了让欧盟难以接受的谈判红线,向强硬的退欧派人士做出承诺,这让他几乎没有回旋的余地。尽管遭到议会的强烈反对,他还是威胁不达成协议就离开欧盟,

他那漫无目的的做法使每个人都困惑不解,不知道他到底想要什么

约翰·伯考(John Bercow)誓言要阻止约翰逊以“无协议退欧”“抢劫银行”

Most perplexing of all, he even sacked 21 of his own Conservative lawmakers who rebelled against his plans. That Johnson and several members of his own

Cabinet took every opportunity to publicly humiliate his predecessor Theresa May has not been lost on his enemies.

Johnson is now trapped in a Brexit prison of his own construction. It's been an extraordinary performance from a man who must have known the scale of the challenge awaiting him.

最令人困惑的是,他甚至解雇了21名反对他的计划的保守党议员。约翰逊和他自己的几名内阁成员利用一切机会公开羞辱他的前任特蕾莎·梅(Theresa May),这并没有让他的敌人失望。

约翰逊现在作茧自缚被困在英国退欧牢狱里。这是一场非凡的表演,他一定知道等待他的挑战有多大。

His biggest headache is that he doesn't have a parliamentary majority. Any Brexit deal must be ratified in the UK Parliament, and even before Johnson sacked 21 of his own rebel MPs, his grip on Parliament was weak. After Theresa May lost her slim majority in 2017, she was forced to strike a deal with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party in order to have enough votes to command a majority for anything, let alone a Brexit deal.

But even the support of the DUP wasn't enough: When May finally returned from Brussels with a fully negotiated deal, the party rejected it. The deal foundered on the rocks of the Irish border backstop, an issue which defies simple explanation but has become totemic for hardline Brexiteers and Northern Irish unionists.

令他最头痛的是他在议会中失去了多数席位。任何脱欧协议都必须得到英国议会的批准,甚至在约翰逊解雇21名反叛议员之前,他对议会的控制力就已经很弱了。特蕾莎·梅(Theresa May)在2017年失去微弱多数后,被迫与北爱尔兰民主统一党(Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party)达成协议,以获得足够多的选票,来掌握解决一切问题的多数席位,更不用说达成脱欧协议了。

但即使是民主统一党的支持也不够:当梅最终带着一份经过充分谈判达成的协议从布鲁塞尔返回时,该党拒绝了这份协议。该协议在爱尔兰边境后备方案上触礁了。这个问题无法简单解释,但已成为强硬派退欧派和北爱尔兰联合主义者的图腾。

During his leadership campaign, Johnson won over the Brexiteer wing of his party by promising that he would either convince the EU to dump the backstop, or lead the UK out of the EU without a deal on October 31. That's what led to the Conservative rebellion and subsequent sackings. Unless Johnson softens his rhetoric, not only will these 21 continue to defy him, even more Conservatives could walk away.
在约翰逊的领导竞选中,他承诺要么说服欧盟放弃支持,要么在10月31日不达成协议的情况下领导英国脱离欧盟,从而赢得了党内退欧派的支持。这导致了保守派的反叛,并随后被解职。除非约翰逊软化他的言辞,否则这21位议员不仅会继续反对他,甚至更多的保守派人士也可能退出。

In recent days, Johnson has toned things down a bit. On a visit to Dublin, he even went so far as to say that leaving without a deal would be a "failure of statecraft," an analysis that many of his MPs share. And he has been more vocal in his optimism that a deal can be done before the next EU summit on October 17.

"If he doesn't get a deal, he's screwed," says one senior Conservative. "And if he doesn't get a deal, then he has demonstrated he cannot negotiate in the national interest."

最近几天,约翰逊的态度有所缓和。在访问都柏林期间,他甚至表示,如果不达成协议就离开欧盟,将是“治国方略的失败”,他的许多议员都认同这一分析。他对10月17日下次欧盟峰会前达成协议的乐观态度更加直言不讳。

一位资深保守派人士表示:“如果他不能达成协议,他就完蛋了。”“如果他不能达成协议,那么他已经表明,他无法从国家利益出发进行谈判。”

Let's assume that Johnson manages to achieve what currently seems almost impossible, and strikes a deal with the EU, it's still very hard to see how it gets through Parliament.

Most moderate Conservatives believe Johnson could count on the support of the 21 expelled lawmakers for a new deal. So that's a start.

But any softening on Brexit would pitch the Prime Minister into a fight with the hardliners he spent the summer winning over. And EU diplomats have been clear any new deal would have to achieve the same outcome as the backstop, which leaves the DUP very much in the doubtful camp.

让我们假设约翰逊成功地完成了目前看来几乎不可能完成的任务,并与欧盟达成了一项协议,但仍很难看到该协议如何在议会获得通过。

大多数温和派保守派人士认为,约翰逊可以指望被开除的21名议员支持一项新协议。这是一个开始。

但在英国退欧问题上的任何软化,都会让这位首相与他在今年夏天赢得支持的强硬派展开一场斗争。欧盟外交官们已经明确表示,任何新协议都必须取得与后门方案相同的结果,这使得民主统一党在很大程度上处于可疑阵营。

Johnson could look to opposition Labour MPs to get a modified deal over the line. The trouble is, the Labour leadership is focused on preventing a no-deal Brexit by securing an extension to the negotiating process. After that, it wants an election.

Last week, Labour, along with other opposition parties and Conservative rebels, passed legislation instructing Johnson to request such an extension.

约翰逊可以指望在野党工党议员们在这条战线上达成一项经过修改的协议。问题在于,工党领导层正致力于通过确保延长谈判进程,防止“无协议退欧”。在那之后,它希望进行选举。

上周,工党与其他反对党和保守派反对派一道,通过了一项立法,要求约翰逊延长退欧期限。

Team Johnson has since floated a number of wheezes to circumvent this, from requesting that a friendly EU member state vetoes the request, thereby guaranteeing a no-deal Brexit, or simply ignoring the instruction.

All of this sets up a fascinating showdown when Parliament returns from its controversial suspension (another Johnson tactic that backfired spectacularly, and may yet be overturned in the Supreme Court on Tuesday.) Johnson could credibly say that if lawmakers really want to stop no-deal, they should vote for his modified agreement or face a crash-out October 31.

自那以后,约翰逊团队提出了一系列策略来规避这一问题,从要求友好的欧盟成员国否决这一请求,从而保证不达成任何协议的英国退欧,或者干脆无视这一指示。

所有这一切都将在议会结束有争议的休会后,上演一场引人入胜的对决(约翰逊的另一个策略适得其反,可能在周二的最高法院被推翻)。约翰逊可以令人信服地说,如果议员们真的想阻止不达成协议,他们应该投票支持他修改后的协议,否则将在10月31日时面临强行退欧。

Source: CNN  来源:CNN

Boris Johnson's call for snap election fails ... again 03:06

鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson) 再次呼吁提前选举失败……03:06

Faced with that choice, Labour would likely hit the nuclear button and seek to bring down Johnson in a vote of no-confidence, and replace him with a new, temporary government with the single purpose of securing a Brexit extension. If Brussels could be convinced that a new election would break the deadlock, they may just agree to it.

Timing becomes an issue here. Any confidence motion would have to be laid after the EU summit in mid-October. If Johnson lost the vote, under UK law he could remain in office for 14 days, after which an election could be held. But that takes the UK perilously close to the October 31 deadline.

面对这一选择,工党很可能会按下核按钮,试图在不信任投票中扳倒约翰逊,用一个新的临时政府取代他,其唯一目的就是确保延长英国退欧期限。如果布鲁塞尔能够确信新的选举将打破僵局,他们可能会同意。

时机成了一个问题。任何信任动议都必须在10月中旬的欧盟峰会之后提出。如果约翰逊输掉选举,根据英国法律,他可以继续执政14天,之后可以举行选举。但这让英国距离10月31日的最后期限非常接近,这是非常危险的。

Some Labour officials and MPs believe that they could use the 14-day countdown to build a majority in the House of Commons for a temporary government and kick Johnson out of Downing Street.

That would likely need two things: The support of rebel (former) Conservative MPs and the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. If the rebel MPs could be persuaded to come on board, Bercow would need to facilitate some sort of mechanism to demonstrate that an alternative government could command a parliamentary majority without recourse to a general election.

一些工党官员和国会议员认为,他们可以利用14天倒计时来为临时政府在下议院赢得多数席位,并把约翰逊赶出唐宁街。

这可能需要两件事:支持反对派(前)保守党议员和下议院议长约翰·伯考。如果反叛议员能够被说服加入议会,伯考将需要建立某种机制,证明另一个政府可以在不诉诸大选的情况下获得议会多数席位。

If that were to happen, it's worth pointing out how utterly unprecedented it would be: A Speaker of the Commons working with the opposition to throw a government from office, while a sitting Prime Minister believes he has a right to squat in Downing Street.

The challenge Johnson faces as he ambles into the toughest few weeks of his life is one of credibility. He has no majority, he has treated his own party with contempt, he has been accused by senior Scottish judges of trying to stymie parliament and it now seems that, after all, he could capitulate and reheat a deal that Brexiteers hate.

如果这种情况真的发生,那么值得指出的是,这将是多么前所未有的一件事:一位下议院议长与反对党合作,试图推翻一个政府,而一位现任首相则认为他有权蹲在唐宁街。

约翰逊在生命中最艰难的几周所面临的挑战是信誉问题。他没有多数席位,他对自己的政党不屑一顾,他被苏格兰高级法官指控试图阻挠议会,现在看来,毕竟,他可以投降并重启一项退欧派痛恨的协议。

And that's just his domestic problems. Just because Johnson believes a deal can be done, that doesn't mean the EU will agree to one. His credibility in Brussels is near enough shot already. "Any change to the deal would need to come with a cast-iron assurance that his parliament agrees to whatever changes he wants to make," says an EU diplomatic source. "How can we trust a PM who doesn't have the trust of a majority of his parliament?"

那只是他的国内问题。约翰逊认为可以达成协议,但这并不意味着欧盟会同意。他在布鲁塞尔的可信度已经差不多了。一位欧盟外交消息人士表示:“对协议的任何修改,都需要有一个铁一般的保证,即他的议会同意他想做的任何修改。”一个欧盟外交消息人士:“我们怎么能相信一个得不到议会多数议员信任的总理呢?”

However, he's not entirely out of options. If he can't get a deal through Parliament, and if he can somehow get around requesting a Brexit extension, then he could kick off the most divisive election campaign in history: Johnson versus the people who stole Brexit. And if he wins an overall majority, he can tell the DUP, his rebels and his hardliners to go to hell.

Or if he can't avoid the extension request, he could get a friendly EU member state to veto it, stare down the Commons and watch as Britain leaves the EU by default on October 31.

Johnson has not completely run out of Brexit road yet. But it must be galling to know that at every turn, he is relying on the goodwill of people who don't have much faith in him.

然而,他并非完全没有选择。如果他不能在议会达成协议,如果他能设法要求延长英国脱欧,那么他就可能启动史上最具分裂性的竞选活动:约翰逊对垒窃取英国脱欧的人。如果他赢得绝对多数,他可以告诉民主统一党、他的反对派和他的强硬派滚蛋。

或者,如果他无法避免延期申请,他可以让一个友好的欧盟成员国否决它,盯着下议院,看着英国在10月31日违约退出欧盟。

约翰逊还没有完全走出英国退欧的道路。但让人感到难堪的是,在每一个转折点上,他都依赖于那些对他不太信任的人的善意。

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