沙特油田遭袭改变了海湾冲突的格局

 admin   2019-09-17 01:53   120 人阅读  0 条评论
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Attack on Saudi oil field a game-changer in Gulf confrontation
沙特油田遭袭改变了海湾冲突的格局

翻译编辑:清波门 /南外英语系群

Analysis by Tim Lister, CNN
Updated 2100 GMT (0500 HKT) September 15, 2019
CNN新闻,蒂姆·利斯特报道
更新于2019年9月15日格林尼治时间2100时(香港时间0500时)

(CNN)The attack on the world's largest oil processing plant early Saturday morning is a dramatic escalation in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia -- even if the Iranians didn't fire the drones or missiles responsible.

Several projectiles struck the Abqaiq plant, starting a series of fires that quickly took out nearly half Saudi's oil production -- 5% of the global daily output -- and sparking fears about the security of the world's oil supplies.

It's unclear when Abqaiq, which is operated by Saudi giant Aramco, will be fully operational again.

(CNN)周六凌晨,世界上最大的石油加工厂遭到袭击,这是伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间对抗的戏剧性升级——即使伊朗没有发射无人机或导弹。

数枚炮弹击中了Abqaiq工厂,引发了一系列火灾,迅速摧毁了沙特近一半的石油产量(占全球日产量的5%),引发了人们对全球石油供应安全的担忧。

目前还不清楚由沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Aramco)运营的Abqaiq何时将全面恢复运营。

A satellite image taken Saturday, September 14, 2019, shows thick black smoke rising from the Abqaiq oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. 2019年9月14日
星期六拍摄的卫星图像显示,厚厚的黑烟从沙特阿拉伯的Abqaiq石油加工厂升起。

Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed the attack, saying that 10 drones had targeted Abqaiq, as well as the Khurais oilfield. But attacks of this scale and accuracy would represent a sudden and remarkable increase in Houthi capabilities, and neither the United States nor Saudi Arabia is buying the claim.

The United States swiftly discounted the Houthi claim. Late Saturday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted: "Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply." And he added: "There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen."

也门胡塞叛军声称对袭击负责,称有10架无人机袭击了Abqaiq和Khurais油田。但是,这种规模和准确性的袭击要是代表胡塞武装能力的突然显著增强的话,美国和沙特阿拉伯都不相信这种说法。

美国迅速否认胡塞的说法。周六晚些时候,美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)在推特上写道:“伊朗现在对世界能源供应发起了前所未有的攻击。”他补充说:“没有证据表明袭击来自也门。”

Pompeo blames Iran for drone attacks on Saudi oil field
蓬佩奥指责伊朗对沙特油田发动无人机袭击

In response Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused Pompeo of engaging in deception. He wrote on Twitter: "Having failed at 'max pressure', @SecPompeo's turning to 'max deceit' US & its clients are stuck in Yemen because of illusion that weapon superiority will lead to military victory. Blaming Iran won't end disaster."

But where did this attack originate and who was behind it?

The Houthis have sent dozens of drones and short-range ballistic missiles against Saudi Arabia in the past two years. Many have been intercepted by Saudi air defenses; others have fallen harmlessly. A very few have caused limited damage and casualties.

作为回应,伊朗外长贾瓦德·扎里夫指责蓬佩奥进行欺骗。他在推特上写道:“在‘最大压力’失败后,@SecPompeo转向了‘最大欺骗’,美国及其委托方被困在也门,因为他们幻想武器优势将导致军事胜利。指责伊朗不会结束灾难。”

但是这次袭击从何而来,又是谁策划的呢?

过去两年,胡塞向沙特阿拉伯发射了数十架无人机和短程弹道导弹。许多导弹被沙特的防空系统拦截;其他一些则安然无恙。只有极少数造成了有限的破坏和伤亡

Coordinated strikes knock out half of Saudi oil capacity, 5 million barrels a day|
协调一致的打击摧毁了沙特一半的石油产能,即每天500万桶

Houthi drones are based on Iranian models, themselves often developed from North Korean technology. They are mostly short-range, up to 186 miles (300 km). However, a UN experts' panel reported in January on the deployment of longer-range drones "that would allow the Houthi forces to strike targets deep into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

The UN panel said it had information that one had crashed within 18 miles (30 km) of Riyadh.

胡塞武装的无人机是基于伊朗的型号,而伊朗的型号通常又是由朝鲜技术研发的。它们大多是短程导弹,射程可达186英里(300公里)。然而,联合国一个专家小组1月份报告称,部署远程无人机“将会使胡塞武装能够打击深入沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的目标”。

联合国专家组表示,他们掌握的信息是,其中一架飞机在利雅得18英里(30公里)内坠毁。

Even so, the maximum range of this system, dubbed the UAV-X, would be between 740 and 930 miles (1,200 and 1,500 km), depending on wind conditions. The distance from Houthi-held parts of Yemen to Abqaiq is about 800 miles (1,300 km).

A source with knowledge of the incident told CNN National Security Analyst Peter Bergen late Saturday that preliminary indications were the drones/missiles "did not originate from Yemen and likely originated from Iraq." A second source in the Gulf region told CNN that while there was no proof yet, the indications were that the attack originated in southern Iraq.

即便如此,这个被称为UAV-X的系统的最大航程也将在740到930英里(1200到1500公里)之间,这取决于风力条件。胡塞武装控制的也门部分地区到Abqaiq的距离约为800英里(1300公里)。

周六晚些时候,一位知情人士告诉CNN国家安全分析师彼得·卑尔根,初步迹象表明无人机/导弹“并非来自也门,很可能来自伊拉克”。海湾地区的另一名消息人士告诉CNN,虽然目前还没有证据,但有迹象表明袭击起源于伊拉克南部。

No clear movement toward a meeting between Trump and Iranian President in New York
特朗普和伊朗总统在纽约的会晤没有明显进展

Pro-Iranian militia are well-entrenched in southern Iraq, and the Quds Force, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards unit in charge of foreign operations, has a presence there. Earlier this year, some regional analysts assessed that a drone attack on a pumping station at Afif in northern Saudi Arabia originated in Iraq. But no hard evidence was produced.

The Iraqi government Sunday issued a statement rejecting reports "about its land being used to attack Saudi oil facilities."

亲伊朗的民兵组织在伊拉克南部根深蒂固,负责外国行动的伊朗革命卫队“圣城军”(圣城旅Quds Force)也驻扎在那里。今年早些时候,一些地区分析人士估计,对沙特阿拉伯北部Afif泵站的无人机袭击源自伊拉克。但没有确凿的证据。

伊拉克政府星期天发表声明,否认有关伊拉克土地被用来攻击沙特石油设施的报导。

The Houthis themselves have suggested, without providing any evidence, that they had help from inside the kingdom for these latest attacks. Their spokesman Yahya Saree said the operation followed "an accurate intelligence operation and advance monitoring and cooperation of honorable people inside the kingdom."

Analysts take that to mean elements of the restive Shia population in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province. Abqaiq lies between the predominantly Shia area of Qatif and Ahsa, which has a substantial minority Shia population. But they caution that it's in the Houthis' interests to try to stir internal tensions and it seems far-fetched that local people could have assisted such an attack.

胡塞叛军自己表示,在没有提供任何证据的情况下,他们在最近的袭击中得到了来自沙特国内的帮助。他们的发言人叶海亚·萨雷说,这次行动是在“一次准确的情报行动之后进行的,而且是在对(沙特)王国里可敬的人进行预先监督和合作之后进行的。”

分析人士认为,这指的是沙特东部省份动荡不安的什叶派人口中的一些人。Abqaiq位于什叶派占主导地位的Qatif地区和什叶派占少数的Ahsa地区之间。但他们警告称,试图煽动内部紧张局势符合胡塞叛军的利益,而当地人可能帮助发动这样的袭击,这似乎牵强附会。

The attack took out roughly half of Saudi Arabia's oil output.
这次袭击使沙特阿拉伯的石油产量减少了大约一半。

Wherever the attack originated and whoever pulled the trigger, these attacks are a step-change in what has already become a dangerous confrontation, with the sabotage of merchant shipping in the Gulf and the acute deterioration of the situation in Yemen, as well as several aerial attacks on Shia militia camps in Iraq in recent months.

While not confirming it was behind the attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel is prepared to strike at pro-Iranian actors wherever they are considered a threat, including in Iraq.

无论攻击是何地发动的以及何人扣动了扳机,这些攻击是对业已危险对抗局面的升级,即:破坏在波斯湾的航运、严重恶化也门的局势,以及近几个月来对位于伊拉克的什叶派民兵营的几次空中袭击。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡虽然没有证实是幕后黑手,但他说,以色列准备打击那些亲伊朗的势力,只要是被认为是个威胁,不管来自何方,包括伊拉克

No previous attack, since the Yemen conflict began four years ago, has interrupted oil supplies. This one has taken 5.7 million barrels a day off the market and demonstrated the vulnerability of the pumping heart of Saudi Arabia's oil industry.

Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in advanced air defense systems. Ayham Kamal at the Eurasia Group says that the "critical problem for the kingdom is structural; most of Saudi Arabia's air defense systems are designed to defend against traditional threats and are ill-equipped to tackle asymmetrical aerial threats such as drones."

自四年前也门冲突爆发以来,还没有任何一次袭击中断过石油供应。这一次,沙特石油日供量减少了570万桶,显示出沙特石油工业心脏地带的脆弱。

沙特阿拉伯在先进的防空系统上投入巨资。欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)的艾汉姆•卡迈勒(Ayham Kamal)表示,“沙特面临的关键问题是结构性的;沙特阿拉伯的大多数防空系统旨在抵御传统威胁,但装备不完善,无法应对无人机等不对称空中威胁。”

Bolton bolts and Iran war fever suddenly drops
“拴住”博尔顿,伊朗战争的狂热突然降温

That vulnerability is enhanced when so many essential parts of the infrastructure -- "storage, processing, and compressor trains -- are located within a small area," he adds.

The attacks have drawn in the international community, with the US declaring that it is ready to open its Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary, and President Donald Trump calling Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

At present, there is plentiful oil on the market. OPEC and its producing ally Russia have cut production this year to support prices. But Saudi Arabia is normally the organization's "swing producer" with the ability to reduce or increase the flow as required. That ability is crimped for now.

他补充说,当基础设施的许多重要部分——“存储、处理和压缩机火车”——都位于一个小区域内时,这种脆弱性就会增强。

这些袭击吸引了国际社会的关注。美国宣布,如有必要,准备开放其战略石油储备,美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)致电沙特王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)。

目前,市场上有充足的石油。石油输出国组织(OPEC,简称欧佩克)及其产油国盟友俄罗斯今年已减产以支撑油价。但沙特阿拉伯通常是该组织的“摇摆生产国”,有能力根据需要减少或增加石油流量。这种能力目前受到限制。

Much depends on the damage reports, and what "work-arounds" might be possible to restore full production and soothe markets' nerves. "The most critical elements of Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure include several redundancies," Kamal says.

How Saudi Arabia will respond in other ways -- such as redoubling its military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen -- is yet to be seen.

CNN's Aqeel Najim and Sara Mazloumsaki contributed to this report.

这在很大程度上取决于损害报告,以及可能采取何种“变通办法”来恢复全面生产并安抚市场的紧张情绪。卡迈勒表示:“沙特阿拉伯石油基础设施最关键的因素包括几项裁员。”

沙特阿拉伯将如何以其他方式做出回应——比如加大对也门胡塞武装的军事打击力度——还有待观察。

CNN Aqeel Najim与Sara Mazloumsak 撰文

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